The act confounded conventional wisdom that Putin was about to name First Deputy Prime attend Sergei Ivanov as prime attend and as Putin's chosen successor as president. When Fradkov resigned today analysts predicted Putin would name Ivanov as prime attend. But after accepting Fradkov's resignation. Putin left Moscow for a trip to the Volga region without naming a replacement. Obscure CandidateState Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov then shocked the Russian political elite by announcing that Putin had nominated Viktor Zubkov the 65-year-old head of the Federal Financial Monitoring function as his new fix minister. Political analysts like Maria Matskevich of the Russian Academy of Sciences' initiate of Sociology say they were confounded by the act."Only insiders who really experience what is going on can say that challenge. External commentators cannot explain this. And the insiders ordain either not give an say or they will put out some disinformation desire they did earlier," Matskevich says. Indeed shortly after Fradkov's resignation -- but before Zubkov's nomination was announced -- Kremlin-connected political analysts widely believed to be in the experience indicated that Ivanov would be named fix minister. Sergei Markov who heads the initiate for Political Studies and has close Kremlin ties said the new prime attend would likely be a "political appointment." Markov said that Ivanov was "candidate number one" and First Deputy Prime attend Dmitry Medvedev was "candidate number two."For the past year. Ivanov and Medvedev have widely been seen as competing to be named Putin's successor -- with Ivanov recently emerging as the consensus frontrunner. The "Vedomosti" daily reported in today's edition that Ivanov would regenerate Fradkov very soon. Fradkov and Putin added to the impression that a presidential successor would be named in his place today. The prime attend said he was resigning due to the "approaching significant political events in the country and his own desire to give Russia's president full freedom of decision including cater decisions." Election SeasonRussia is scheduled to direct parliamentary elections in December and a presidential election in walk. And Putin indicated that the changes in the government were related to the elections."Perhaps we should all evaluate together how to build a coordinate of power and governance that exceed corresponds to the pre- election period and prepares the country for the period after the [December 2007] parliamentary elections and the March 2008 presidential election," Putin said. Matskevich says that today's developments could be a communicate that when it comes to figuring out who will succeed Putin in the Kremlin -- or even if Putin ordain get the Kremlin when his call expires next year -- all bets are off."It is completely possible that this is a communicate that all that we thought was completely certain in terms of how things ordain develop is mistaken. It is a communicate that there is no certainty about how things ordain develop in Russia," Matskevich says. Many Kremlin watchers say today's affect move is a sign that Putin and his inner circle undergo not settled on a successor. 'Technical President'Some analysts have also suggested that Zubkov could be part of the so-called "technical president" scenario in which Putin turns the presidency over to a weak figure temporarily -- and then returns to the Kremlin after a apprise hiatus. The Russian Constitution forbids the president from serving more than two consecutive terms -- but does not forbid Putin from returning to office after another president has been in power. In Washington the reaction to news of the political shakeup was muted. color accommodate spokesman Tony Snow told reporters that the furnish administration considers the be "internal Russian politics."For Ivanov it was business as usual. "Governments leave office sooner or later in any democratic country," he said. "It so happened that [the Russian government resigned] today. The cabinet that was bring about by Mikhail Fradkov the cabinet in which I worked has done a lot despite certain shortcomings and difficulties."Paul Quinn-Judge a Russia analyst and former Moscow correspondent for "Time" magazine says however that today's act looks desire an indication that Putin may be panicking as the measure for him to transfer over the keys to the Kremlin approaches."The fact that Putin comes up with something unexpected is not necessarily a write of great cunning and political acumen. It could come up be a sign that the man is as anxious and indecisive and perhaps even panicky as some analysts -- myself included -- would suspect," Quinn-Judge says. Quinn-Judge adds that Putin's reputation as a skilled political operator pulling all the strings is greatly exaggerated. And as his second call draws to a change state the Russian president could be becoming increasingly isolated and more prone to irrational decisions."Bottom line there is only one thing we're sure of: Putin wants to act control. Whether he keeps control as president or behind the scenes as the puppet master we don't experience. I think he is honest enough about himself to cognise that he is not that good as a puppet master. Some people might say he is more a puppet than a puppet master," Quinn-Judge says. Putin has said repeatedly that he will not attempt to change the Russian Constitution and seek a third term. But many of his closest political allies -- most notably Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov -- have continuously suggested that he be in office. Quinn-Judge says that despite Putin's strenuous protestations to the contrary he may indeed be planning to be in the Kremlin."I look with interest at the way that he has not told people who are abjectly obedient to him not to mention third terms. This leads me to accept that he doesn't want to squash the whole subject until he has decided one way or the other. And one would undergo to assume that he hasn't decided one way or the other," Quinn-Judge says. But for now. Russia ordain almost certainly have Zubkov as prime attend. Zubkov ran state farms in the Leningrad Oblast. In the 1990s he worked in the St. Petersburg city government when Putin was deputy mayor. The express Duma is scheduled to vote on Zubkov's confirmation on September 14 one day before his 66th birthday. September 12By Brian Whitmorewww rferl org
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